Waves of government stimulus have stabilized corporate loan portfolios, but IACPM members voice concern about possible long-term impact of the mammoth amount of liquidity.
Fiscal stimulus has played a key role in settling markets and the economy, and while credit default and spread forecasts remain negative, credit conditions seem to be stabilizing and ‘Worst Case’ may not happen.
There is certainly no shortage of challenges facing global financial markets but, for the moment, many appear to be on the back burner.
IACPM members have long kept a wary eye on central bank liquidity and the potential end to one of the longest running economic expansions.
Facing a litany of real and potential concerns, respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey forecast wider credit spreads and rising credit defaults.
IACPM Survey Forecasts Wider Credit Spreads And Rising Defaults As Respondents Keep Eye On Global Central Banks.
Credit portfolio managers responding to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey believe credit spreads will widen over the next three months and defaults will increase over the next 12 months. The new survey released today shows overall negative scores of minus -18.8 for credit spreads and minus -36.3 for defaults.
Latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey Forecasts Rising Global Defaults As Outlook Modestly Dims For North America; Credit Spreads Expected To Widen In North America, Remain Unchanged In Europe
Survey respondents in the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey forecast rising defaults over the next 12 months and wider credit spreads over the next three months. The IACPM Credit Default Outlook Index is negative -31.3 in the latest reading, while the IACPM Credit Spread Outlook Index is minus -21.8. Both results imply deteriorating credit conditions.
North American Default Outlook Edges Closer To Neutral New York, NY – Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey continue to forecast rising defaults and wider credit spreads but sentiment is somewhat improved over recent quarters. The outlook for corporate defaults over the next 12 months is negative -29.6 in the latest survey …