Responding to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey as 10-year US Treasury yields were surging higher and before an unexpectedly strong US employment report was released or war in Israel broke out, participants forecast the worst is yet to come in terms of credit problems.
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey overwhelmingly expect global economies to fall into recession either later this year or sometime in 2024.
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey point to several major concerns in forecasting continued global credit deterioration and the strong possibility for a recession by the end of the year.
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey overwhelmingly forecast rising corporate defaults globally over the next 12 months.
Even as credit conditions have begun to deteriorate globally, the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey forecasts even higher defaults and wider credit spreads in the months ahead.
Members of the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers responding to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey forecast rising credit defaults globally.
Increased defaults will be driven by continued expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates as well as supply chain issues.
A confluence of higher inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain issues and labor shortages have prompted respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey to forecast wider credit spreads over the next three months.
Survey respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey are modestly less optimistic about future credit conditions.
While the amount of stimulus has been critical in providing an underpinning for businesses, as well as consumers, it also resulted in concern about inflation.